Betting on US Politics during an Presidential Election Year #1

The Presidential Election years get more people, especially young people out of their houses to vote.  As America has 50 states there will be thousands of different small elections going on in each city, municipality, and state.  We are going to only focus on the Federal Elections at this time.

At this point, everyone knows that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are running for President.

All 435 seats in the House oRepresentativeses are up for grabs.

34 of 100 seats are up for election in November as well.

Those other elections are gaining more prominence as the Republican party seems to be running away from Donald Trump.  The Republican Party, while technically the majority has been split between regular Republicans and Tea Party Republicans.  This is why it has been so difficult to get any laws passed.  There is no unity in the Republican Party.

This mixture of lack of unity and the Donald Trump effect has left many safe Republican Senate seats on shaky ground.  270 to win  puts John McCain’s Senate Seat on shaky ground.  After October, when Trump’s tape became public, McCain has been able to make up the ground he lost by making a clean break from Trump and focusing on his own race.

Some believe that Hillary’s large lead could cause a “wave election,” meaning the Democratic party would make huge gains in this upcoming election.  With Hillary leading by 1.18 odds over Donald’s 5.0, it’s easy to see why many would believe that.  But House and Senate elections are very different from the Presidential election because of the Electorial College.

It is no surprise in Illinois that every presidential election year that all of the Electorial College votes will go to a Democrat, but that Democratic House and Senate elections away from Chicago are political battles.  Chicago has the majority of the population of Illinois in a densely populated area.  But there is an entire state that is mostly rural farms, and those people will vote Republican.

Betting on Hillary Clinton for president is a pretty safe bet.  This week we will be looking at other Federal Elections in America and see where the safe bet is there.

 

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