Donald Trump’s Chances of Winning

Looking at this election, and the way that it has been running its course, it should seem obvious that Hillary Clinton will win and become the United State’s first female president.  But this year’s election hasn’t been following any patterns.

Donald Trump beat the obvious choice in the Republican presidential primary, Jeb Bush.

Donald Trump’s only behind in the polls between 1 and 7 percent.  He is ahead in Rasmussen’s and IBD/TIPP’s polls by 1-2 percent.

With all the inflammatory comments he has made, Donald Trump should be out of the race.  He should have been pushed out of the Republican party, whose strongest voting blocks are over 50 and/or Evangelical Christians, based off of his past behavior, that the public already knew about.  But there is a different wing of that party that nobody wanted to talk about, until now.

The United States has, in the last few years, experienced a cultural shift that, similar to the swinging 60s, is being pushed against.  This time though there isn’t a war in Vietnam to unite people behind.  New wave feminism, giving homosexuals the right to marry in all 50 States, the trans rights movements have all changed the way we speak, think and interact with each other, in ways that many under 30 don’t think about.  Adding to this the increased immigration of people from Mexico and the Middle East have made white heterosexuals realize soon they will not be the majority in power.

Donald Trump is playing into all those fears of change.  He is also placing seeds of doubt in Republicans, making sure they go out and vote.  He is also allowing Democrats to feel a sense of complacency, since Democrats are more likely to not vote if they believe their vote doesn’t matter, or they feel the election is already won.  Donald Trump is throwing his last “hail mary” pitch at this election with questioning if he will accept the results, hoping it will sway in  his direction.  And we will see in less than three weeks if that will work.

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