Is this Hillary’s Race to Loose

By most projections Hillary Clinton is going to win both the popular vote and in the Electoral College, by a strong majority.  All but two major polls put Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump by at least 4 points.  But, with only about two weeks to go until the election, Hillary could still lose this race for several reasons:

1.  If young Democrats stay home.  Donald Trump is firing up his base, unlike any Republican candidate since Ronald Reagan, who was able to defeat a sitting president handily in the electoral college.  Young Democrats are laissez-faire voters, and sometimes need to be pushed to the polls, and if they think that Hillary will win without much of a challenge, they may not vote.

2.  If Donald Trump has/can sway undecided voters.  Only about 40% of the country would call themselves a strict “Democrat” or “Republican.”  If Donald Trump or the Republican party can sway undecideds to their cause then we have a stronger race on Trump’s side.

3.  Voter registration/regulation/or other laws preventing the poor, minorities or other people who are or have been disenfranchised from voting.  Most states restore the voting rights of felons upon completion of their sentence, parole, or probation.  But this is only recently, and many who have recently left the criminal justice system do not know his or her rights upon reentry.  Also, we have to take into account Voter ID laws, which have been shown to most negatively affect the poor and minorities.  The majority of the people affected in this group would vote Democrat.

4.  General apathy could affect either candidate.  This campaign has been nasty and brutish, but far from short.  The United States has an extremely long election cycle and people are getting tired of it.  So tired that he or she may stay home on election day and not vote, for either candidate.

Looking at the polls and the projections the smart money his on Hillary Clinton winning this election, but one should never assume anything until after the votes are cast.


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