House of Representatives Election US Election Betting #2

This year all 435 House member’s seats are up for election.  Currently, the Speaker of the House is Paul Ryan, who is a Republican.  The Minority Leader is Nancy Pelosi, who is a Democrat.  The Republicans have 246 seats and the Democrats have 186 seats.   The Democrats would need 32 more seats to overtake the Republican majority.

During this election cycle, 18 Democrats and 25 Republicans are retiring from his or her seat.

Five incumbents (two Democrats and three Republicans) were defeated in the primaries.

Looking at the individual House Races most political pundits do not believe there are enough “toss up” elections to believe the Democrats will take the House.  It is logistically possible, especially with the retirements and the waves of discontent that have has come about with Trump’s candidacy.

House of Representatives races are a more local event compared to the presidential race.  The average citizen is more likely to have contact with his or her local House member.  That is the nature of the House, and why there are so many of them.

While party affiliation may be part of the reason someone will vote for a particular member of the House, what that member of the House brings back to the community is also an important factor.  If that member of the House is able to bring back funding, and new projects that make jobs then people are more likely to vote for him or her based solely on their experience.  This is why so many members of the House have held their seats for as long as they have because they get the job done.

This last Congress hasn’t though.  Congress in the 2010s has been the least productive in passing new laws with each term passing less than 300 laws.  What this shows is that Congress isn’t working together, to pass new laws and do what the American people want them to do.  Frustration creates new House members.

Likelihood of the House switching majority to the Democrats, small, about 14%, but not impossible.

 

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