The Predictions Have Started

The presidential predictions have begun. FiveThirtyEight has predicted that Hillary Clinton has an 80% chance of winning the presidency.

 

The rationale that Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight gives is, because he’s an unusual candidate, that he is already an underdog to begin with. They take that along with polls and economic data to show that the likelihood of Trump winning is less that 20 percent. Another thing to look at is that a presidential nominee with this kind of lead hasn’t lost the nomination since 1988.

Unless Trump is able to capitalize on something Hillary has done in the past, as First Lady, Senator, or Secretary of State, FiveThirtyEight doesn’t give Trump a chance.

John Weiner of The Nation says that voters don’t change that often. Trump isn’t going to gain a million more votes than Romney. He sees no chance for Trump to win, because he can’t court anyone new to change the dynamic of the election.

Ben Boychuk of the Sacramento Bee thinks that Trump will win because he’s more memorable, he’s already playing the rhetoric game, and the media doesn’t phase him. Also because Clinton isn’t very good with debates, in his opinion.

It doesn’t seem as though the majority of the media believes that Trump could win this election. The media may be more liberal than Trump’s constituents. He was able to win primaries for a reason: mostly because the other choices were worse. The Republican party, I am sure, will vet its candidates better and not allow so many people to run again. If this was a Clinton/Bush election, like everyone believed it would be a year and a half ago, the talk around the election would be much different.

The Senators and House members know their individual elections will be much more important because this presidential election is out of the ordinary. Hopefully they will do something before the election is over.

 

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